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An interesting Italian real estate horoscope for 2023 was compiled by “astrologers / experts” – two analytical agencies: Nomisma and Scenari Immobiliari, both of which are members of professional associations of FIAIP and FIMAA.

Their forecast takes into account that there were more real estate transactions in Italy in 2022 compared to 2021 (767,000 in 2022, which is +2.4% versus 2021). What they predict for the Italian property market is the following:

Prices will remain stable or rise slightly overall, but Milan and Rome are likely to be ahead of the pack:

  • Milan + 6%, Rome + 4%, Bologna, Florence and other major cities + 2%;
  • There will be more inquiries from foreign investors
  • Higher bank interest costs will lead to a 20% decrease in mortgage lending
  • A large share of real estate transactions will be for “real money”, without any recourse to mortgage lending
  • Fewer transactions (-13%), fewer families will be able to purchase property without a mortgage
  • But there is good news for sellers of real estate in the luxury segment and developers of new energy efficient housing projects. There will be increased demand in those segments
  • Rental demand will continue to increase, but not for long-terms rentals, demand for which will decline
  • The share of properties taken up on short-term lease will increase significantly, mainly because of higher yields on short-term rentals (lower depreciation and practically no risk of non-payment).

Whether the predictions are correct, time will tell, but we hope our views at least provoke an interesting debate!

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