ITALY STRIVES FOR LEADERSHIP
Italy is successfully moving from being a laggard in the European real estate market to firmly establishing itself as one of the leaders. This was one of the most prominent ideas presented at the traditional Scenari Immobiliari 2024 forum, organized by an independent analytical company and held in Rapallo. The 2024 Real Estate Forum served as a central platform for discussing market transformations and presenting promising forecasts for the coming years. The two-day event attracted a full hall of industry professionals. The 32nd session of the forum brought together analysts and experts who presented key real estate market trends for 2024 and forecasts for 2025. The period of significant challenges for the European and Italian real estate markets has ended, as confirmed by the findings of the European Outlook 2025 study, highlighting positive dynamics in the residential sector. High demand and lower interest rates create ideal conditions for increased transactions. The commercial sector continues to see steady interest, especially in the office and hospitality segments. According to forecasts, by the end of 2024, approximately 720,000 residential transactions will be concluded in Italy, and by 2025, this figure will rise to 760,000, which is 36% higher than in 2020.
| Sale and Purchase Transactions | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Number | 560,000 | 750,000 | 780,000 | 710,000 | 720,000 | 760,000 |
| Secondary Housing | 509,600 | 682,500 | 706,000 | 650,000 | 665,000 | 692,000 |
| New Buildings | 50,400 | 76,500 | 74,000 | 60,000 | 55,000 | 68,000 |
ITALIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET: KEY TRENDS AND PROSPECTS
A notable feature of the Italian market is that over 90% of transactions involve older residential properties, which in turn drives price growth for new developments. According to forecasts, the average price increase nationwide will be 3.1%. Leading cities in terms of dynamics will be Milan (+6.9%), Venice (+6.5%), and Rome (+6%), followed by Bergamo, Bologna, and Naples with around 5% growth.
Interest in secondary housing used for tourism is also growing. This is due to increased investments in short-term rentals and the transformation of such properties into permanent residences.
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN REAL ESTATE SECTORS
Italy is confidently moving towards renewing its real estate market, and the forum became an important milestone on this path. Investor interest is once again spreading across various segments. After a period of constraints caused by rising construction costs and the European Central Bank’s policies, prospects are beginning to clear up.
Hospitality Real Estate
The hotel market is experiencing active growth due to the increasing presence of international chains.
Offices
The office real estate sector is recovering, with revenue expected to increase by 3.7% by 2025. Demand is focused on Class A properties with an emphasis on environmental sustainability. Milan remains the leader, but Rome is also strengthening its position.
Logistics Sector
Growing demand is observed in central and southern regions, despite declining yields. Retail real estate in suburban areas remains challenging; however, major retail chains demonstrate stability.
INCREASED DEMAND FOR NEW HOUSING IN ITALY
Despite 70–75% of Italians owning homes and demographic forecasts indicating a population decline of 2 million by 2050, demand for new housing remains consistently high. According to the “Home for the City of the Future” study conducted by Scenari Immobiliari and Investire SGR, approximately 3.65 million new residential units will be required over the next 25 years. The highest concentration of demand is expected in metropolitan areas such as Milan (+5%) and Rome (+3%). To implement these plans, over €1 trillion in construction investments will be needed, along with approximately €4.2 billion annually for maintenance. The main drivers of demand are urbanization and changes in housing preferences, which the existing housing stock can no longer meet. Moreover, 42% of new homes must be equipped with additional services, requiring an additional €50 billion (8–11% of housing costs). Geographically, Milan will attract the largest share of investments (€39 billion), followed by Rome (€26 billion). The total value of created real estate will exceed €1.4 trillion.
SPECIALIZED HOUSING: NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Milan, Bologna, and Rome are becoming centers for the development of specialized housing, including student accommodations, micro-living concepts, and co-living spaces. These cities are also actively preparing solutions for senior citizens aged 75 and older. Currently, specialized residences account for less than 1% of Italy’s housing stock; however, demand for them is growing rapidly. The main categories of consumers will be students, young professionals, and active seniors.
URBAN REGENERATION: REDEFINING CITIES
The migration from small towns to large cities not only necessitates the construction of new housing but also significantly transforms urban environments. Key directions of change include improving infrastructure and transportation accessibility and creating green spaces. Large-scale regeneration will affect more than 11.4 million square meters of urban areas. Italy is undergoing significant changes, transforming into one of the key players in the European real estate market. High demand for new housing, large-scale urban regeneration projects, and growth in specialized segments such as student housing and senior living are shaping new horizons for development. Investments in construction, infrastructure development, and the adoption of innovative solutions will form the foundation for sustainable growth in the coming decades, making Italy an attractive destination for professionals and investors from around the world.
